Monday, February 26, 2018

Another way...

I got out of practice writing because I got stuck in my head about what to say next.  So I'm just gonna stream a bunch of thoughts.

So, if we don't know like the where the world appears to be heading in terms of the oncoming unemployment wave (due to robotics/automation, combined with a population that will roughly double in the next century), then what are our alternatives?

Historically, the opposing forces of war/pestilence to reduce the working population and a growing economy spurred by technological innovation have somehow maintained a balance and long period of controlled growth.  However, as our wars and pandemics are getting smaller and less impactful to the population in terms of scale, and as growth slows (future growth is predicted to be primarily fueled by increases in efficiency due to automation at the expense of human jobs), the long era of balance is no longer assured to hold in the future.

In my cynical view, a likely outcome of a society that has chronic 50%+ unemployment is a more rigid security state to protect those lucky enough to be employed combined with easily accessible pacifying pharmaceuticals for the masses.  Much like the world envisioned by movies such as Robocop.

Others have envisioned a world such as the Handmaid's Tale, where global war in combination with a dramatic drop in fertility maintains the balance.  Others such as Mad Max just imaging a hopeless post-apocalyptic desert.  None of these sound more preferable (and strike me as being less likely).

Yuck.

As bleak as that sounds, though, there is tremendous effort, attention and imagination toward a much more positive future.

The other alternatives have been for humanity to escape our small blue planet to explore the stars...which spurs the need for even more humans to colonize and build the infrastructure for extraterrestrial life.  This is the dream of Elon Musk and the future envisioned in Star Trek, etc.

I would love for Elon Musk's future to be true, for space travel and colonization to be the next technology wave that spurs the next phase of positive human growth.  However, I am not so confident that this will happen in time (or before a tremendous amount of suffering and damage to the Earth's ecosystem occurs).  I'm skeptical because it would require an almost perfect combination of a) global focused commitment/cooperation to developing the technology; b) time/resources to build the infrastructure at scale; and c) enough time left climate change and other global forces disrupt our capacity.  On the other hand, what else better do we have to do with our time?  Let's go for this with all haste!

Simultaneously, there are an incredible number of efforts to build ourselves more runway/time on this planet.  Many large-scale projects to reduce our impact on the earth (zero emission energy such as new, safe nuclear power, solar, wind, etc) are already afoot and accelerating at a fantastic pace.  Experiments with Universal Income to address unemployment are beginning with optimistic results.  Development of lowered impact food systems (plant/insect based proteins, etc) and. And a growing awareness and global commitment to reduce climate change seem to be taking hold, finally.

All of these are good and we should do more with more urgency and focus.  And I can imagine that the forces of humanity can once again defy the pessimists.  But I wonder 2 things:
  • How can I most contribute as an individual?  I am not a scientist or engineer. I do not have the capability to help with the technology except in a peripheral capacity.  What is my role in helping humanity succeed/survive?
  • Is this envisioned future on earth sufficient?  Even if we make modest achievement in our runway-lengthening efforts (universal income, zero emissions, lower per-capita ecological impact). Will we live in a world that is the more like Utopia or more like Robocop?
More on these 2 questions next.









Friday, February 16, 2018

Question: What will all of the people do post-automation?

This is the crux of my ramblings and questions:

"If trends continue, within 30-50 years (maybe sooner), 1/3 of the global jobs will be replaced by automation (AI robotics, etc), and simply less global consumption...and the population will be >10B people.  What will all of the unemployed and underemployed people be doing?"  I hear that we have roughly 2 generations before this really happens (because in the interim, we need people to rebuild infrastructure and the actual tools of automation).

Here are some articles for context:


Personally, I am a pessimist, so see mostly the downsides (for the mass of humanity and society).  I just don't believe that the low-skill service/labor jobs will be replaced by other jobs.  There are simply too many uneducated, poorly trained humans.

If we continue our current path, I see only a few futures in which the mass of humanity can live fulfilling lives (this is a very a low bar, since so many already live in scarcity and insecurity...think Africa, Asia, South America, etc.):
  1. Less population.  This solves the problem because we'll NEED robots to help run the world.  I can imagine a few scenarios here. There are a few options here:
    • A Great war or wars.  Barring a global nuclear war, I find this scenario unlikely because war is increasingly automated and does not actually kill that many people.   Let's hope it's not nuclear.  In the meantime, I don't see other wars affecting population significantly
    • Pestilence/plague.  I see this as more likely.  With the rise of antibiotic resistant diseases and more human density, this might keep the population down.  Again, let's hope not.  For the record, the Black Plague, wiped out 25-30% or population.  So the scale is possible.  The question is whether any specific disease can spread fast enough to affect this many people before we humans find a solution.  I don't bet against humans here.
    • Governmental action.  The government can start to enforce fertility rules.  This is extreme, but perhaps not unfathomable.
    • Natural drop in fertility/birthrate.  Perhaps children just won't be as popular.  Wealthy countries consistently see falling fertility rates due to many reasons (economic mainly, but also because each child has a higher chance of surviving to adulthood and reproducing, so there's not so much need to make so many).  China and India are already tapering off...so that's a positive sign
  2. A world of walled cities.  Where the haves are separated from the have-nots.  Not much to add here...just image Robocop on steroids.   Militarization of cities mainly protecting the elites, "Soma-for-all" to pacify the masses.
  3. We escape outside of the Earth to colonize the stars en masse.  This would require lots of humans...so in the extremely unlikely event that this becomes possible in the next 50 years, it would be great
I understand that this is a Hobson's choice, that not all the possible outcomes/choices are listed, but these are the "obvious and logical" outcomes that spring into my uncreative mind.

The reason I'm writing this is NOT because I'm hopeless, but I feel that we collectively need to start now to envision a collective positive (practical) future, and start working toward achieving it now.    And to do that, we need more ideas/solutions that can make an impact at a a large scale.  Bill Gates, Elon Musk and other visionaries are doing this...but I still feel like their efforts are out of my reach to participate/contribute.  I hate to think that our futures are resting on a few smart people on the West Coast with the rest of us just waiting to see what happens.

What are other likely/probably outcomes you envision?  Please comment below!





Rebooting

It's been years since I've posted, so I deleted my old posts and am starting anew.

Mostly I plan to write about a few topics that interest me:


  1. Blockchain stuff.  Looking for "killer apps" and other ideas that are beyond the hype and speculation cycle.
  2. Thinking of our post-robotics world and society.  Quite simply...what are positive visions and alternatives for our future where 1/3 of the global jobs are eliminated by automation.
  3. Reading lists and other interesting ideas that cross my path
I'm going to try to publish more regularly...more or less just a practice of writing, but not necessarily fully complete thoughts ideas.

Please follow along and send feedback!