I got out of practice writing because I got stuck in my head about what to say next. So I'm just gonna stream a bunch of thoughts.
So, if we don't know like the where the world appears to be heading in terms of the oncoming unemployment wave (due to robotics/automation, combined with a population that will roughly double in the next century), then what are our alternatives?
Historically, the opposing forces of war/pestilence to reduce the working population and a growing economy spurred by technological innovation have somehow maintained a balance and long period of controlled growth. However, as our wars and pandemics are getting smaller and less impactful to the population in terms of scale, and as growth slows (future growth is predicted to be primarily fueled by increases in efficiency due to automation at the expense of human jobs), the long era of balance is no longer assured to hold in the future.
In my cynical view, a likely outcome of a society that has chronic 50%+ unemployment is a more rigid security state to protect those lucky enough to be employed combined with easily accessible pacifying pharmaceuticals for the masses. Much like the world envisioned by movies such as Robocop.
Others have envisioned a world such as the Handmaid's Tale, where global war in combination with a dramatic drop in fertility maintains the balance. Others such as Mad Max just imaging a hopeless post-apocalyptic desert. None of these sound more preferable (and strike me as being less likely).
Yuck.
As bleak as that sounds, though, there is tremendous effort, attention and imagination toward a much more positive future.
The other alternatives have been for humanity to escape our small blue planet to explore the stars...which spurs the need for even more humans to colonize and build the infrastructure for extraterrestrial life. This is the dream of Elon Musk and the future envisioned in Star Trek, etc.
I would love for Elon Musk's future to be true, for space travel and colonization to be the next technology wave that spurs the next phase of positive human growth. However, I am not so confident that this will happen in time (or before a tremendous amount of suffering and damage to the Earth's ecosystem occurs). I'm skeptical because it would require an almost perfect combination of a) global focused commitment/cooperation to developing the technology; b) time/resources to build the infrastructure at scale; and c) enough time left climate change and other global forces disrupt our capacity. On the other hand, what else better do we have to do with our time? Let's go for this with all haste!
Simultaneously, there are an incredible number of efforts to build ourselves more runway/time on this planet. Many large-scale projects to reduce our impact on the earth (zero emission energy such as new, safe nuclear power, solar, wind, etc) are already afoot and accelerating at a fantastic pace. Experiments with Universal Income to address unemployment are beginning with optimistic results. Development of lowered impact food systems (plant/insect based proteins, etc) and. And a growing awareness and global commitment to reduce climate change seem to be taking hold, finally.
All of these are good and we should do more with more urgency and focus. And I can imagine that the forces of humanity can once again defy the pessimists. But I wonder 2 things:
So, if we don't know like the where the world appears to be heading in terms of the oncoming unemployment wave (due to robotics/automation, combined with a population that will roughly double in the next century), then what are our alternatives?
Historically, the opposing forces of war/pestilence to reduce the working population and a growing economy spurred by technological innovation have somehow maintained a balance and long period of controlled growth. However, as our wars and pandemics are getting smaller and less impactful to the population in terms of scale, and as growth slows (future growth is predicted to be primarily fueled by increases in efficiency due to automation at the expense of human jobs), the long era of balance is no longer assured to hold in the future.
In my cynical view, a likely outcome of a society that has chronic 50%+ unemployment is a more rigid security state to protect those lucky enough to be employed combined with easily accessible pacifying pharmaceuticals for the masses. Much like the world envisioned by movies such as Robocop.
Others have envisioned a world such as the Handmaid's Tale, where global war in combination with a dramatic drop in fertility maintains the balance. Others such as Mad Max just imaging a hopeless post-apocalyptic desert. None of these sound more preferable (and strike me as being less likely).
Yuck.
As bleak as that sounds, though, there is tremendous effort, attention and imagination toward a much more positive future.
The other alternatives have been for humanity to escape our small blue planet to explore the stars...which spurs the need for even more humans to colonize and build the infrastructure for extraterrestrial life. This is the dream of Elon Musk and the future envisioned in Star Trek, etc.
I would love for Elon Musk's future to be true, for space travel and colonization to be the next technology wave that spurs the next phase of positive human growth. However, I am not so confident that this will happen in time (or before a tremendous amount of suffering and damage to the Earth's ecosystem occurs). I'm skeptical because it would require an almost perfect combination of a) global focused commitment/cooperation to developing the technology; b) time/resources to build the infrastructure at scale; and c) enough time left climate change and other global forces disrupt our capacity. On the other hand, what else better do we have to do with our time? Let's go for this with all haste!
Simultaneously, there are an incredible number of efforts to build ourselves more runway/time on this planet. Many large-scale projects to reduce our impact on the earth (zero emission energy such as new, safe nuclear power, solar, wind, etc) are already afoot and accelerating at a fantastic pace. Experiments with Universal Income to address unemployment are beginning with optimistic results. Development of lowered impact food systems (plant/insect based proteins, etc) and. And a growing awareness and global commitment to reduce climate change seem to be taking hold, finally.
All of these are good and we should do more with more urgency and focus. And I can imagine that the forces of humanity can once again defy the pessimists. But I wonder 2 things:
- How can I most contribute as an individual? I am not a scientist or engineer. I do not have the capability to help with the technology except in a peripheral capacity. What is my role in helping humanity succeed/survive?
- Is this envisioned future on earth sufficient? Even if we make modest achievement in our runway-lengthening efforts (universal income, zero emissions, lower per-capita ecological impact). Will we live in a world that is the more like Utopia or more like Robocop?
More on these 2 questions next.
